Friday, April 17, 2009

In the spirit of Jim Mora, were talkin' about playoffs, damnit! Not just winning games. The Denver Nuggets have done plenty of that in the regular season for the past 5 years, but when the wins need to come in the playoffs, it's a whole different story. I think the Nuggets add to their record breaking season, and finally make some noise in the postseason. 

I honestly cannot believe that the Denver Nuggets are the number 2 seed in the western conference. It seems like only a year ago we were just fighting to get into the playoffs. Oh wait, we were. If someone would have told me that the Nuggets would be the number 2 seed in the playoffs, have Chauncey Billups, and playing the number 7 seed Hornets, I would have slapped the hell out of them. Truly a remarkable turnaround for the Denver Nuggets, and no one could be more happier than I am. I've been one of the biggest followers of this team basically since they drafted 'Melo in 03. Let's just say that not all of the 5 previous years have been all that pleasant. I can tell you one thing though, my girlfriend loves it when the Nuggets play good ball. I'm a dick when they lose. Haha. 

So in the first round the Nuggets are facing the New Orleans Hornets. The Hornets are 49-33 this year, and have been considered as a major disappointment after their fantastic 08-09 campaign. They're, of course, led by the best point guard in the NBA (in my opinion) in Chris Paul, and have a solid, but injured supporting cast in Tyson Chandler and Peja Stojakovic. David West is also a very good ball player, but he doesn't fit into the injured category. I really liked this team going into this year, but for some reason, they never gelled like they did last year. Injuries are a major part of it, but it's not like they're getting much healthier. Chandler is back from his foot injury, but has only played one game in the past month. 

As far as the matchups:

Billups vs. Paul:

I love this matchup. You have the old blood vs. the new blood. Billups' veteran savviness, vs. Paul's unbelievable skills. Chauncey won't be guarding paul all that much, because Dahntay Jones will have that assignment. On the other hand Paul will be guarding Billups, and I see this as a possible mismatch for the Hornets. I believe that Billups will use his strength and height to post up Paul on numerous occasions, which will inevitably get Paul into foul trouble. On the offensive side, Paul will have to go against Denver's version of Bruce Bowen in Dahntay Jones. Inevitably I see Paul doing most of his damage in the assist column, as I see the Nuggets trapping Paul out of Pick and Rolls to get the ball out of his hands, as they have done in the previous games. 
Advantage: Push

Jones vs. Rasual Butler

This matchup is about as boring as it gets, because basically neither of these guys will be guarding each other. I foresee Jones guarding Paul as I said before, and I see Butler guarding Melo for as long as he's paired with Stojakovich on the wings. Butler's a pretty decent shooter, and will probably be waiting on the wings to sink a few when Paul gets doubled, but I don't see him having that big of a series. If he does, the Nuggets will lose. Can't let the shooters get hot if you're a Nugget fan. 
Advantage: Push

Carmelo vs. Stojakovich

Again, I don't see Stojakovich guarding Melo. He'll probably be guarding Jones to start the game. As for Melo? He will most likely be guarding Stojakovich on the defensive end. Just get a hand in the guy's face early on, and Stojakovich will take himself out of the game real fast, if not the series. Dude is streakier than JR. Melo should have his best series to date against the Hornets, especially if Chandler isn't playing up to par. 
Advantage: Nuggets

K-Mart vs. David West

I think this is the most important matchup for the Nuggets. K-Mart needs to walk the fine line in the Paul/West pick and roll. Help enough on Paul, so that he doesn't get into the paint, but not too much so West has an open jumper. If there is any man that can do this, it's K-Mart. I've been critical of K-Mart all year long, but he will be very valuable to the Nuggets if he holds his end of the bargain. I think K-Mart is the X-Factor in this series. Still, West will get his points, and that's okay. Just need it to a minimum. 
Advantage: Hornets

Chandler vs. Nene

Coach Karl better drill this into his players heads: "Give Nene the ball!" We need this guy to gain his confidence back to where he had it at the start of the season. With Nene balling, this team is very hard to beat. Chandler, healthy or not will have a hard time guarding Nene. He's basically a carbon copy of Camby for all of you that don't know. Maybe a little more explosive than Camby, but you get the picture.  Lanky dude, but a good shot blocker. Nene has a huge size advantage, and is the much more physical player. 
Advantage: Nuggets

Bench vs. Bench

The Nuggets have one of the best benches in the league, and we can actually thank our current foe: The Hornets. New Orleans took it in the rear when  trading JR Smith to us for 2 2nd round picks (technically went to Chicago), and just handed the Birdman to us- thanks to a few drug convictions by the Birdman :) The Hornets have James Posey, Sean Marks, Antonio Daniels, and Hilton Armstrong. Easy choice here. 
Advantage: Nuggets

So, in my "unbiased" opinion, I think the Nuggets win this handily if they get on the Hornets early. Melo needs to feel comfortable early, and if he does so, I see this team going really far. As far as my prediction? I have the Nuggets in 5. Win the first two at home, steal one in New Orleans, and finish it off here at The Can. 

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